Photo Credit: NICOLAS ASFOURI/AFP/Getty Images
Things seem to be getting worse in Thailand. This is not the first time the country has seen itself embroiled in civil unrest and mass protests. In recent years they have all ended rather peacefully, with the dissolution of their government and new elections being held. On the other occasions it was a Military Coup and martial law. In one bloody year, the conflict was ended after the King spoke. Today the King spoke again, but no mention of resolving the conflict, only that the courts do their job to ensure peace and return the country to order. Not the powerful overwhelming speech most were expecting. People are already trying to debate what his words meant and read between the lines.
However I can’t help but feel that the country is on a collision course to a final bloody conflict, or worse, civil war. I was there during previous protests and it all seemed so much more benign. Exercising democratic freedoms, that were overly tolerated by the government in power. But looking at today’s encampment of the redshirts, and the violent rhetoric coming out of their leaders mouths, trouble seems evident.
This is also the first time I’ve seen trouble spreading outside of Bangkok and heading up to the rural areas. There are red shirts stopping military and police convoys from leaving bases in the north. This is rural farmland, areas with a large majority of Red Shirt support. I’m often amazed at how much the Thai government and military will tolerate. If this was going on in a western country, the protests would have been broken up long ago, and those causing civil unrest arrested. There is a difference between a peaceful protest and hijacking a city or country.
Their logic never ceases to amaze me. Different groups go back and fourth in attempts to overthrow the government by way of protests. First the PAD, or Yellow Shirts were successful after taking over the airport in November of 2008. Stranding tourists for over a week. Now the UDD, or Red Shirts are not happy and it is now their turn to do the same. So what will happen next? The Yellow Shirts hit the streets and look to overturn any government the PAD puts in power. And on it goes, until the Military once again steps in and quells the unrest and declares Martial Law.
However the worst case scenario is that this doesn’t happen in time and the country errupts into a civil war. Do I think this is a real possiblity? Yes, but not a large scale. It seems to me that there are a core group of supporters on each side of this. However most Thai’s just want to get back to business and know that a civil conflict is not in anyone’s best interest. That doesn’t mean you might not see the fanatics shooting it out, and the Military having to come in once again. Should that happen, it would be a horrible blow to Thailand’s economy. Not just tourism, but standard industries as well.
And what would happen to the value of the Baht should that happen? A major devaluation is probably in the cards. Though this might not be a bad thing should their be stability gained quickly. This would help their exports and their tourist business as it would once again be a very cheap destination to visit.
One hopes that this conflict will be resolved shortly and with minimal additional damage or blood spilled. I know my travel plans to visit the country are on hold till they can get this worked out.
